Nationally, homebuyers are finally gaining some breathing room. Redfin’s latest housing market update shows pending home sales down 5.4% year over year, the lowest level in nearly three years, while new listings are up 1.5% year over year, giving buyers more choices and more negotiating power than they’ve had since 2023. Mortgage rates aren’t helping affordability either — Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey puts the 30-year fixed rate at 7.03% as of September 24, up from 6.95% the week before and well above the 6.30% homebuyers saw a year ago. But walk through Clairemont or San Carlos this week and you’d never guess any of that — homes there are still selling in under two weeks, often with multiple offers over asking.
National Buyers Are Gaining Leverage — San Diego Hasn’t Gotten the Memo
Redfin’s report frames the shift plainly: with pending sales at a nearly three-year low and inventory climbing, remaining buyers nationally have more room to negotiate on price and terms. That’s a real change after several years of sellers calling the shots in most U.S. markets.
San Diego, though, is still one of the tightest markets in the country. Redfin’s own San Diego market data puts the citywide median sale price at $999,339, up 5.2% year over year, with homes going under contract in a median of just 27 days and 34.5% of sales closing above list price. Redfin scores San Diego a 76 out of 100 on its Compete Score, and says homes here typically draw three offers. In other words, the same company documenting a national cooldown is, on its own San Diego page, describing a market that’s still very much competitive.
Clairemont and San Carlos Are Even Hotter Than the City Average
Zoom into specific San Diego neighborhoods and the gap between national and local conditions gets starker. In Clairemont (ZIP 92117), Redfin’s three-month data shows a median sale price of $1,159,498, up 12.7% year over year, with homes selling in a median of just 15 days — 11 days faster than a year ago — and 43% of sales closing above asking. The area carries a 87-out-of-100 Compete Score.
San Carlos (ZIP 92119) is running even hotter: a $989,776 median sale price, up 13.1% year over year, homes under contract in a median of 13 days (down from 29 days last year), and 50.8% of sales above list price. Redfin says homes in 92119 draw five offers on average. Both neighborhoods are classic mid-century San Diego tract communities — ranch and split-level homes on quiet streets, most with an attached two-car garage — which makes them a useful case study for what actually moves the needle when a home is competing for multiple offers in under two weeks.
The Fall Upgrade With the Best Return: Replace the Garage Door
If you’re prepping a Clairemont or San Carlos home to list this fall, the data on where to spend renovation dollars is unusually clear. Zonda’s most recent annual Cost vs. Value Report found that garage door replacement returns more of its cost at resale than any other project it tracks: an average $4,672 job recoups $12,507 in added value, a 267.7% return. No interior remodel comes close — the next-best project nationally, a steel entry door replacement, returns 216.4% ($2,435 cost versus $5,270 in added value.)
The report’s broader finding is worth noting too: eight of the ten highest-ROI projects nationally are exterior upgrades, not kitchens or bathrooms. In a market like Clairemont or San Carlos, where a home’s garage door and entry are often the first thing a buyer sees pulling up for a 15-minute showing window, that curb-appeal math lines up with what’s actually happening on the ground — homes that show well from the street are the ones landing five offers in under two weeks.
What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling in San Diego
For sellers, the takeaway isn’t to renovate the whole house — it’s to spend where the return is highest and the timeline is short enough to hit this fall’s market. For buyers, it’s a reminder that “buyers have more leverage” is a national headline, not a San Diego guarantee; homes in tight submarkets like Clairemont and San Carlos still require a strong, clean offer to compete.
If you’re weighing whether now is the right time to sell, curious what your Clairemont, San Carlos, or any other San Diego home is worth in today’s market, or want a second opinion before you invest in a pre-listing upgrade, I’d love to help you think it through. Reach out through trulysd.com for a no-pressure conversation about your home’s value and the smartest next step for your situation.
