A tropical storm watch for San Diego is about as rare as weather gets here. Tropical Storm Rachel put our coast under one this weekend (our Rachel coverage is here), with the roughest surf and coastal flooding forecast for the overnight high tides into Sunday morning. With the worst of it forecast to pass overnight, it’s a good moment to look back at just how unusual that was.
We went through the official record, mainly the National Weather Service San Diego office’s archive of significant Southern California weather and the National Hurricane Center’s storm reports, to see where Rachel fits in a short, odd and surprising local history.
- Only one storm in the record brought hurricane-force winds to San Diego: an unnamed hurricane on Oct. 2, 1858.
- Hurricane Hilary in 2023 triggered the first tropical storm watches and warnings ever issued for Southern California.
- Most “tropical” weather here arrives as remnants: rain, flash floods in the mountains and deserts, and big surf, rather than direct hits.
- Rough surf can outlast a storm. NHC expected hazardous coastal conditions from Rachel to continue into early next week, so check NWS San Diego before heading into the water.
Why San Diego almost never gets tropical storms
Hurricanes run on warm ocean water. NOAA’s hurricane researchers explain that eastern Pacific storms that curve back toward the U.S. run into much cooler water off California and Baja, which can’t keep them going. Add steering winds that usually carry these storms west, out to sea, and most fall apart long before they get near us.
That’s the rule. The timeline below is the list of exceptions.
San Diego’s brushes with tropical storms
168 years of the official record, from the 1858 hurricane to Rachel.
- 1858The San Diego hurricane~75 mph winds
On Oct. 2, 1858, a Category 1 hurricane passed just offshore. NWS San Diego lists implied winds of about 75 mph and heavy property damage. NOAA researchers pieced the storm together from old newspaper accounts in 2004, and NOAA calls it the only documented case of hurricane-force winds from a tropical cyclone in California’s recorded history.
- 1873A soggy August1.95 in. of rain
A tropical storm dropped 1.95 inches on San Diego on Aug. 11–12, including 1.80 inches on the 12th alone. The previous one-day August record had been 0.31 inch.
- 1902A record that lasted 113 years0.83 in. in July
Remnants of an eastern Pacific storm brought 0.83 inch of rain to San Diego on July 25, a one-day July record that stood until 2015.
- 1939“El Cordonazo”93 lives lost
Four tropical cyclones affected Southern California in September 1939, something NWS calls unprecedented. The last came ashore near San Pedro on Sept. 25 as a tropical storm, nicknamed “El Cordonazo” (the Lash of St. Francis). Floods killed 45 people on land and 48 more died at sea. The region got its own Weather Bureau forecast office in February 1940 as a result.
- 1972Hyacinth~25 mph at landfall
Former Hurricane Hyacinth came ashore in northern San Diego County as a weak tropical depression. San Diego itself measured less than half an inch of rain.
- 1976Kathleen10+ in. on Mt. Laguna
Tropical Storm Kathleen dumped more than 10 inches on Mount Laguna, which NWS describes as a 160-plus-year rain event. Ocotillo was hit hardest: six people died and more than 70% of the town was buried in mud and sand.
- 1977–78Doreen and Norman2.13 in. in San Diego
Hurricane Doreen’s moisture soaked the county in August 1977, with 2.13 inches in San Diego and four deaths across Southern California. A year later, Norman reached the coast near Long Beach as a tropical depression.
- 1997Linda and NoraA near miss
Hurricane Linda, at the time the strongest storm ever recorded in the eastern Pacific, was briefly forecast to reach California before turning away. Later that month, Nora’s moisture flooded parts of Borrego Springs, Palm Springs and Spring Valley.
- 2022Kay109 mph gust
Kay stayed in Mexico, but the pressure pattern around it set off fierce downslope winds in our mountains. Cuyamaca Peak recorded a gust of 95 knots, about 109 mph, and Mount Laguna picked up nearly 6 inches of rain over the following days.
- 2023HilaryFirst SoCal warnings
Hilary peaked as a Category 4 hurricane and came ashore in Baja California as a tropical storm on Aug. 20. It led to the first tropical storm watches and warnings ever issued for Southern California, and San Diego set a daily rainfall record of 1.82 inches. NHC’s later review found Hilary lost its tropical structure just before reaching the border, but it still counts the storm as affecting the U.S. as a tropical storm.
- 2026RachelWatch for SD coast
Rachel’s approach put the coast from the border to the San Diego/Orange County line under a tropical storm watch. On Saturday evening it had 65 mph winds about 365 miles south of San Diego and was racing north-northeast at 30 mph. Forecasters expected it to come ashore in northern Baja California Saturday night, with life-threatening surf and moderate to major coastal flooding on our coast overnight into Sunday morning, before fading over the Southwest on Sunday. For the latest, check NWS San Diego.
As of the National Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. advisory, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026
How the big ones compare
| Storm | How it reached us | The San Diego takeaway |
|---|---|---|
| 1858 hurricane | Category 1, center just offshore | The only hurricane-force winds on record |
| 1939 El Cordonazo | Tropical storm landfall at San Pedro | Deadliest; led to a local forecast office |
| 1976 Kathleen | Tropical storm moving inland from Baja | Catastrophic flooding in the mountains and deserts |
| 2022 Kay | Stayed in Mexico; drove mountain winds | A 109 mph gust on Cuyamaca Peak |
| 2023 Hilary | Tropical storm landfall in Baja | First-ever SoCal tropical storm warnings |
| 2026 Rachel | Tropical storm forecast to come ashore in northern Baja | Watch for the San Diego coast; surf and flooding |
Fun facts for your next beach-day conversation
What actually hurts here: water, not wind
Read through the NWS archive and a pattern jumps out. San Diego’s tropical-storm damage almost always comes from water: flash floods in the backcountry and deserts, debris flows off burn scars, flooded Mission Valley roads and pounding surf. Wind is usually the smaller story, except on mountain peaks.
Rachel’s forecast followed the same pattern, with surf, rip currents and coastal flooding as the main local concerns. NHC expected hazardous coastal conditions to linger into early next week, so before you head back to the beach, check NWS San Diego at weather.gov/sgx and the County’s ReadySanDiego.org for local alerts.
- NWS San Diego: A History of Significant Weather Events in Southern California (updated March 2026)
- NOAA Hurricane Research Division: Why hurricanes rarely hit the West Coast
- Chenoweth & Landsea, “The San Diego Hurricane of 2 October 1858,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2004)
- National Hurricane Center: Tropical Cyclone Report, Hurricane Hilary (2023)
- National Hurricane Center: Tropical Cyclone Report, Hurricane Kay (2022)
- National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Rachel advisory archive (Advisory 55A, Oct. 10, 2026)
